Up to date 2022 Mexico Open Odds & Picks for Aaron Sensible, Sebastian Munoz Amongst High Targets

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2022 Mexico Open Odds

Golfer	Odds
Jon Rahm	+450
Abraham Ancer	+1600
Tony Finau	+2000
Aaron Sensible	+2200
Gary Woodland	+2200
Cameron Tringale	+2800
Kevin Na	+2800
Patrick Reed	+2800
Chris Kirk	+3300
Sebastian Munoz	+3300
Brendon Todd	+4000
Kevin Streelman	+4000
Aaron Rai	+5000
Adam Lengthy	+5000
Cameron Champ	+5000
Charles Howell III	+5000
Matt Jones	+5000
Russell Knox	+5000
Doug Ghim	+5000
C.T. Pan	+6600
Carlos Ortiz	+6600
Davis Riley	+6600
Lanto Griffin	+6600
Mark Hubbard	+6600
Chad Ramey	+6600
Sahith Theegala	+6600
Taylor Moore	+6600
Anirban Lahiri	+8000
David Lipsky	+8000
J.T. Poston	+8000
Pat Perez	+8000
Scott Stallings	+8000
Patrick Rodgers	+8000
Scott Piercy	+8000
Tyler Duncan	+8000
Wyndham Clark	+9000
Adam Svensson	+10000
Alex Smalley	+10000
Brandon Wu	+10000
Brian Stuard	+10000
Greyson Sigg	+10000
John Huh	+10000
Kevin Chappell	+10000
Nate Lashley	+10000
Robert Streb	+10000
Vince Whaley	+10000
Austin Smotherman	+12500
Brice Garnett	+12500
Danny Lee	+12500
Kramer Hickok	+12500
Michael Thompson	+12500
Nick Hardy	+12500
Nick Taylor	+12500
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	+12500
Ryan Armour	+12500
Vaughn Taylor	+12500
Andrew Putnam	+15000
Ben Griffin	+15000
Callum Tarren	+15000
Chase Seiffert	+15000
Emiliano Grillo	+15000
Graeme McDowell	+15000
Hank Lebioda	+15000
Joseph Bramlett	+15000
Justin Decrease	+15000
Kurt Kitayama	+15000
Lee Hodges	+15000
Peter Uihlein	+15000
Adam Schenk	+15000
Dylan Wu	+15000
Hayden Buckley	+15000
Peter Malnati	+15000
Scott Gutschewski	+15000
Aaron Baddeley	+20000
Andrew Novak	+20000
Ben Kohles	+20000
Ben Martin	+20000
Bo Hoag	+20000
Chez Reavie	+20000
James Hahn	+20000
Jared Wolfe	+20000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	+20000
Luke Donald	+20000
Matt Wallace	+20000
Roger Sloan	+20000
Stephan Jaeger	+20000
Wesley Bryan	+20000
Invoice Haas	+20000
Camilo Villegas	+25000
Curtis Thompson	+25000
Jason Dufner	+25000
Kevin Tway	+25000
Patrick Flavin	+25000
Richy Werenski	+25000
Satoshi Kodaira	+25000
Scott Brown	+25000
Trey Mullinax	+25000
David Skinns	+25000
Jonathan Byrd	+30000
Max McGreevy	+30000
Paul Barjon	+30000
Ryan Blaum	+30000
Seth Reeves	+30000
Seung-Yul Noh	+30000
Austin Prepare dinner	+35000
Brandon Hagy	+35000
Bryson Nimmer	+35000
David Lingmerth	+35000
Fabian Gomez	+35000
Greg Chalmers	+35000
Michael Gligic	+35000
Robert Garrigus	+35000
Roberto Díaz	+35000
Sung Kang	+35000
D.J. Trahan	+40000
Martin Coach	+40000
Ricky Barnes	+40000
Alvaro Ortiz	+50000
A. Favela	+50000
Bo Van Pelt	+50000
Brett Drewitt	+50000
David Hearn	+50000
Dawie van der Walt	+50000
Grayson Murray	+50000
Jeffrey Kang	+50000
Jim Knous	+50000
Johnson Wagner	+50000
Joshua Creel	+50000
Kelly Kraft	+50000
Sangmoon Bae	+50000
Tommy Gainey	+50000
Mark Hensby	+75000
Matt Each	+75000
Ben Crane	+100000
B. Willman	+100000
D.A. Factors	+100000
Jonas Blixt	+100000
Jose Antonio Safa	+100000
Jose Cristobal Islas	+100000
Manuel Inman	+100000
Santiago De La Fuente	+100000
Turk Pettit	+100000

Oh, the irony of a brand new match on the PGA TOUR schedule being hosted on a Greg Norman signature course.

The Mexico Open has been contested since 1944, however it makes its debut on the sport’s most elite circuit this week at Vidanta Vallarta, a course that was constructed not way back by the person now serving as CEO of a rival tour.

I’m not going to take care of that I personal a lot intimate data of this venue, so let’s follow the info: It was inbuilt 2016 and performs to 7,456 yards as a par-71, suggesting it may need some enamel.

In accordance with a course description, “Paspalum grass covers the complete structure, which winds alongside the Ameca River and offers views of the Sierra Madre mountains from nearly each gap.” It continues by providing, “The course has giant touchdown areas, however sandy waste areas and quite a few water hazards await to catch photographs that stray too far. The water additionally provides a strategic aspect to many holes, as do the bunkers [55 total] that dot the course.”

Additionally, and this one is much less truth than opinion: It seems downright lovely.

From the sound of it, size is extra advantageous than accuracy off the tee, and method photographs can be key – particularly from 175 or extra yards, hinting that we should always contemplate the higher long- and mid-iron gamers in what’s a predictably weaker subject.

If there’s one other trace for us, it’s that historically when the PGA TOUR travels to a brand new venue for what’s theoretically an annual occasion — not a one-timer — the powers-that-be will err on the facet of warning when establishing the golf course. The principle motive is that it’s troublesome to foretell whether or not 10-under or 25-under will win a match on the highest degree, however there’s not less than an underlying subplot that beating up on among the world’s greatest gamers isn’t precisely one of the best ways to get extra of ‘em to play that occasion in future years.

All of which is to say that whereas a near-7,500-yard par-71 seems like a brute, it’d wind up being extra scoreable than at first blush.

With that in thoughts, let’s get to the performs, that are without end an inexact science, however even much less actual and fewer scientific for this one.

Outright Winner

One participant to win the match.

Aaron Sensible (+4000)

Very similar to we’ll hear from some NFL normal managers main as much as the draft, I’m going with some mixture of the “greatest participant obtainable” and “huge upside” theories right here. That’s to not recommend that Sensible has a brighter future than, say, pre-tourney favourite Jon Rahm, however they will’t all be No. 1 total picks, should you get what I imply.

Eschewing absolutely the prime of the board, Sensible is a participant I’ve been very bullish on since posting 5 finishes of twenty sixth or higher in 5 begins in the course of the fall portion of this season’s schedule, although it hasn’t fairly come to fruition but this yr. Although he’s missed the reduce in half of his eight begins thus far, Sensible does personal a T17 and T21 amongst his final 4 appearances and a subject with out most of golf’s elite appears like an ideal place for him to say a long-awaited second profession title.

Different OADers

Potential choices for one-and-done choices.

Sahith Theegala (+8000)

I’ve mentioned it so many instances over the previous few months, however you received’t be getting present Theegala costs for for much longer, so hold leaping on ‘em when you can.

I definitely don’t thoughts him for outrights, props and DFS, however he would possibly personal probably the most worth for OAD swimming pools, that are most likely leaving your less-researched poolsters scratching their heads over what to do in a brand new occasion with no historical past. The important thing phrase of the week simply could be “upside,” as I’ve acknowledged above already. It is a good week to play some guys you’ve been eyeing for some time, and Theegala definitely makes that checklist for me.

Kevin Na (+2200)

My decide to win the RBC Heritage in his most up-to-date begin, Na definitely has the stick-with-your-pick factor going this week, as he’s among the many extra embellished gamers on this week’s subject. It additionally is sensible to take him on a course the place mid-irons would possibly get extra use, as he ranks thirtieth this season in strokes gained on photographs from 175 to 200 yards. That’s a standard theme all through this preview, as I’ve focused a handful of gamers who match this statistic.

Carlos Ortiz (+10000)

Watch out touring down Narrative Avenue this week. As you’ll see with my fade on the backside of this preview, a home-country benefit actually may not be a bonus in any respect. Ortiz is one among a handful of Mexican gamers on this week’s subject, which might imply extra strain than comfortability.

After all, lacking the reduce in 4 straight begins is fairly uncomfortable, too, though I nearly like Ortiz higher — I definitely like his odds higher — when he’s taking part in with nothing to lose, fairly than driving a heater going into this one.

ps://www.actionnetwork.com/golf/2022-mexico-open-odds-picks-predictions-gary-woodland-cameron-champ-perry” goal=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>Learn now

High-5

One participant to complete top-5.

Sebastian Munoz (+600 for top-5)

Full disclosure: It basically got here all the way down to a coin flip for my fave outright play between Sensible and Munoz, and the truth is that I’ll have an funding in every participant on a number of totally different platforms.

Munoz will get the early-year Charles Howell III/Maverick McNealy good-but-not-great award, with all of his outcomes between twenty first and Thirty ninth over his previous half-dozen begins. Whereas most gamers insist they try for this type of consistency, one huge efficiency and 5 stinkers are literally rewarded higher.

That mentioned, the kind of golf that has yielded these outcomes ought to go away him larger on the board this week, in opposition to a lesser subject than any of these earlier ones. Once more, I’ll play him for a top-five, however don’t be afraid to sprinkle slightly on him for outrights, too.

High-10

One participant to complete top-10.

Gary Woodland (+210 for top-10)

Within the modern-day language of subject commitments, we’re usually compelled to discern between a participant who “wants” to play a particular lesser occasion, whether or not for sponsor obligations or PIP issues or in any other case, and one who merely desires to play, with a purpose to proceed some momentum or discover some larger win chance.

I feel Woodland matches the latter class. He nonetheless has a number of years’ value of exemptions from his 2019 U.S. Open victory, however he’s seemingly taking part in as a result of he is aware of he can present up at this one and personal a greater likelihood of profitable than most different occasions. With three top-10s in his previous six begins, I like the worth of this prop, particularly on a course the place he can rip stingers and lengthy irons far and wide.

High-20

One participant to complete top-20.

Pat Perez (+275 for top-20)

The 46-year-old has joined my SiriusXM PGA TOUR present “Hitting the Inexperienced” a number of instances not too long ago and consistently admits that he can’t watch for these three-round, no-cut occasions of PGA TOUR Champions.

The world’s most brutally trustworthy golfer has a number of extra years left on the large tour, although, and he’s not completed taking part in some first rate golf, particularly on a tropical resort course, like these the place he’s owned a good quantity of success over time. My preliminary play right here was Kevin Chappell, however after an early-week WD, I be ok with Perez as a top-20 substitute.

High-30

One participant to complete top-30.

Austin Smotherman

If you’re on the lookout for one thing — something — to supply a motive to choose a participant this week, you’ll hold on to any little piece of data.

Like this: Again in 2018, Smotherman not solely received this very match when it was a PGA TOUR Latinoamerica occasion, he set the all-time scoring report with a four-round complete of 262.

That’s the excellent news. The dangerous information is that it’s hardly related, contemplating that tourney was held in Tijuana. I’m not terrific at Mexican geography, however I did a little bit of analysis and located that it’s some 1,363 miles from that course to this week’s venue — a few 24-hour automotive journey, should you’re not eager on stopping in any respect.

That mentioned, I nonetheless suppose Smotherman is a gifted younger rookie, so I’m not going to let slightly factor like being a full day’s automotive journey from some good vibes cease me from taking part in him right here.

High-40

One participant to complete top-40.

Ben Griffin

Digging deep right here, however Griffin may not be as a lot of a flier as he appears on the floor. A sponsor’s exemption on this week’s subject, Griffin owns 4 top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour already this season, together with a pair of runner-up finishes which have propelled him from 1,744th on the earth rating initially of this yr to 364th proper now.

Contemplating this subject is barely a small step up from the KFT circuit, there’s motive to imagine he can maintain his personal in opposition to a gaggle of gamers which shouldn’t be too intimidating for a participant making simply his third profession PGA TOUR begin this week.

DFS Free Bingo Sq.

A secure plug-and-play choice for DFS.

Tony Finau

Certain, I might’ve listed Rahm on this house, who’s most likely the last word free Bingo sq. on this occasion, although for some motive I’m getting some severe Fortinet Championship vibes from the erstwhile No. 1, referring to the season-opener the place he MC’d in a seemingly unusual scheduling choice one week earlier than the Ryder Cup.

As a substitute, I’ll go slightly deeper and provide up Finau, who ought to have related motivation to Woodland, basically utilizing this as a “get-right” week earlier than the ultimate three majors of the yr. With a Munoz-like report of 5 outcomes between twenty eighth and thirty fifth in his final seven begins, Finau is a high-floor play in higher fields however ought to personal an prolonged ceiling at this one, as properly.

DFS ‘Canine

A lower-priced choice for DFS.

Patrick Flavin

On most weeks, I write the vast majority of this column on Sunday night, then add some ending touches on Monday morning. Meaning I can’t save a spot for any potential Monday qualifiers.

Till this week, that’s, because the qualifier for this occasion was held one week earlier. Amongst those that made it into the sector is Flavin, who will make his fourth PGA TOUR begin of the season. Within the earlier three, he’s completed T17, T22 and T54, suggesting that maybe all he wants is a long-term alternative to show he belongs on the best degree.

Within the quick time period, he’ll play this week in a subject akin to these different three, which suggests there’s worth on him to duplicate a consequence someplace between the very best and worst of what he’s completed thus far. 

First-Spherical Chief

One participant to put up the low rating Thursday.

Peter Malnati (+10000 for FRL)

That is admittedly a really feel play, as a participant exterior the top-100 in R1 scoring common this season doesn’t appear to personal an excessive amount of worth right here.

What I do like about Malnati, although – for this wager, not less than – is that he tends to be an all-or-nothing kind of man. Final season, his Thursday scores ranged from a 62, a 63 and a pair of 65s to a few 78s and an 81; this season, that notion has manifested itself in three 67s, a 68 and three 69s, although nothing worse than a 75.

This isn’t one for the faint of coronary heart, however there’s definitely some potential.

Matchup Man

One participant who ought to beat comparable gamers.

Kramer Hickok (+20000)

This class is often reserved for individuals who make a variety of cuts. As I usually write, these high-floor performs basically give us two probabilities to win H2H wagers each on Friday night and Sunday afternoon.

Hickok doesn’t fairly match that profile, as he’s MC’d as a lot as he’s chased this yr, however this ranks as simply one other upside play on a man who owns some worth and will have a good week. Towards related fields, he’s owned a pleasant report over the previous couple of seasons. At this outright value, he’s value a play there, as properly.

Additionally Receiving Votes

Different gamers who ought to present worth.

Chris Kirk (+3500), Russell Knox (+7000), Taylor Moore (+7000), Alex Smalley (+8000), J.T. Poston (+13000), Joseph Bramlett (+20000)

The Large Fade

One prime participant to keep away from at this match.

Abraham Ancer (+2500)

Bear in mind what I wrote about Narrative Avenue within the part on Ortiz? I’d count on Ancer to be a preferred play this week for a similar motive we have a tendency to focus on SEC grads in Southeast-based tourneys.

Carrying the flag of Mexico because the nation’s highest-ranked participant, these narratives might definitely elevate him to some nice heights this week — or they might simply deliver extra strain.

Living proof: In three begins on the now-deceased WGC-Mexico Championship, Ancer completed 59th-Thirty ninth-Twelfth. He might definitely flip round that report this week, however with no outcomes contained in the top-30 in his final eight stroke-play occasions on the PGA TOUR, there’s loads of motive to go away him off the cardboard right here.